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The EU and US Are Headed Towards Collapse. And China, Russia?

We have already discussed, in two recent blogs, the demise of the Euro - forecasted for the second half of 2013 - and the collapse of the USA - anticipated around 2017-2018. Let us recall both situations, in which annual data from the World Bank have been used spanning periods from 1970 to 2010. The variables which are taken into account in the analysis of the various countries and regions are listed at the end of the blog (the list shown is that of the USA but the same variables are taken into account for each country).

As discussed in the mentioned blogs, a shrinking, (or even dying) system is characterized by the fact that both its complexity and critical complexity are diminishing. Problem number two is if the two values get close to each other. The system in question becomes critically complex and chaos-driven - basically uncontrollable and running on autopilot (proving there is one). Let's see the case of the EU first (in all graphs, one tick corresponds to one year).



The crisis is reflected in loss of complexity (potential, functionality) after the peak in 2008 which is continuing to fall at alarming rates. But what is worse is that crticical complexity is falling at higher rates - see the two red arrows - which indicates convergence providing of course that no extreme events will change the system's current dynamics (refer to the mentioned blogs for more details). When complexity approaches critical complexity (imagine your cholesterol reaching the maximum value suggested by your doctor) the length of the red vertical segment approaches 0. What this means is that the country's governability index - defined as the ratio of the length of the red segment to that of the black one - approaces 0. The country, as a system, becomes no longer controllable. Many of its parts may still function but the system as such ceases to behave as one, and is just an ensemble of chaotically linked sub-systems.

The situation of the US is similar.



Complexity and critical complexity will, if the current trend continues, cross around 2017-2018. At that time the USA will be in a state of paralysis.  What appears to be common to the EU and the USA is that both systems have reached peak complexity (development, growth) at the same time (2008) although the values are quite different.

But what about other important countries and regions of the World, such as China, Russia and the Arab countries? Let's take a look at China first. The situation is totally different.



We can observe that the evolution of complexity doesn't at all resemble that of the Western World. This is not surprising. While we don't intend to provide an exhaustive analysis of the possible reasons, certainly culture, government and lifestyles come to mind first. The important thing is that there is no clear and visible indication of a tendency for complexity to drop. China, as a system (we're not looking at just the economy - the analysis is holistic and embraces all facets of a society) appears to be much more solid (controlled and controllable) than the Western countries. There is no collapse in sight.

Something totally differentl may be said of Russia.



Russia has been enjoying a period of sustained almost constant complexity increase over the past two decades which has plateaued only recently, around 2009-2010. Again, it is not the scope of this blog to analyze the reasons of this behavior. What is clear, nevertheless, is that unlike the Western world, Russia does not seem to be heading towards paralysis. At least not as of today.

Finally, a glimpse of the Arab countries.



The Arab countries seem to be following the Western world to a certain degree, although their evolution in terms of complexity seems to be more "traumatic" and rugged (let us not forget that the Arab world has been/is torn by unrest and conflict). However, they too, as a system, are heading towards a state of paralysis, disgregation and, potentially, collapse.

More soon.


Below is the complete list of variables used in the analyses.

  1. Agricultural machinery, tractors
  2. Fertilizer consumption (% of fertilizer production)
  3. Fertilizer consumption (kilograms per hectare of arable land)
  4. Agricultural land (sq. km)
  5. Agricultural land (% of land area)
  6. Arable land (hectares)
  7. Arable land (hectares per person)
  8. Arable land (% of land area)
  9. Land under cereal production (hectares)
  10. Permanent cropland (% of land area)
  11. Forest area (sq. km)
  12. Forest area (% of land area)
  13. Average precipitation in depth (mm per year)
  14. Land area (sq. km)
  15. Agricultural machinery, tractors per 100 sq. km of arable land
  16. Cereal production (metric tons)
  17. Crop production index (1999-2001 = 100)
  18. Food production index (1999-2001 = 100)
  19. Livestock production index (1999-2001 = 100)
  20. Surface area (sq. km)
  21. Cereal yield (kg per hectare)
  22. Trade in services (% of GDP)
  23. Communications, computer, etc. (% of service imports, BoP)
  24. Income payments (BoP, current US$)
  25. Imports of goods and services (BoP, current US$)
  26. Insurance and financial services (% of service imports, BoP)
  27. Goods imports (BoP, current US$)
  28. Service imports (BoP, current US$)
  29. Royalty and license fees, payments (BoP, current US$)
  30. Imports of goods, services and income (BoP, current US$)
  31. Transport services (% of service imports, BoP)
  32. Travel services (% of service imports, BoP)
  33. Foreign direct investment, net outflows (% of GDP)
  34. Private current transfers, payments (BoP, current US$)
  35. Workers' remittances and compensation of employees, paid (current US$)
  36. Current account balance (BoP, current US$)
  37. Current account balance (% of GDP)
  38. Net income (BoP, current US$)
  39. Net trade in goods and services (BoP, current US$)
  40. Net trade in goods (BoP, current US$)
  41. Net errors and omissions, adjusted (BoP, current US$)
  42. Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$)
  43. Private capital flows, total (BoP, current US$)
  44. Private capital flows, total (% of GDP)
  45. Portfolio investment, excluding LCFAR (BoP, current US$)
  46. Changes in net reserves (BoP, current US$)
  47. Net current transfers (BoP, current US$)
  48. Net capital account (BoP, current US$)
  49. ICT service exports (BoP, current US$)
  50. ICT service exports (% of service exports, BoP)
  51. Communications, computer, etc. (% of service exports, BoP)
  52. Income receipts (BoP, current US$)
  53. Exports of goods and services (BoP, current US$)
  54. Insurance and financial services (% of service exports, BoP)
  55. Goods exports (BoP, current US$)
  56. Service exports (BoP, current US$)
  57. Royalty and license fees, receipts (BoP, current US$)
  58. Exports of goods, services and income (BoP, current US$)
  59. Transport services (% of service exports, BoP)
  60. Travel services (% of service exports, BoP)
  61. Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$)
  62. Foreign direct investment, net inflows (% of GDP)
  63. Portfolio equity, net inflows (BoP, current US$)
  64. Current transfers, receipts (BoP, current US$)
  65. Workers' remittances, receipts (BoP, current US$)
  66. Workers' remittances and compensation of employees, received (current US$)
  67. Workers' remittances and compensation of employees, received (% of GDP)
  68. S&P Global Equity Indices (annual % change)
  69. Market capitalization of listed companies (current US$)
  70. Market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP)
  71. Listed domestic companies, total
  72. Stocks traded, total value (current US$)
  73. Stocks traded, total value (% of GDP)
  74. Stocks traded, turnover ratio (%)
  75. Agriculture value added per worker (constant 2000 US$)
  76. Water pollution, clay and glass industry (% of total BOD emissions)
  77. Water pollution, chemical industry (% of total BOD emissions)
  78. Water pollution, food industry (% of total BOD emissions)
  79. Water pollution, metal industry (% of total BOD emissions)
  80. Water pollution, other industry (% of total BOD emissions)
  81. Water pollution, paper and pulp industry (% of total BOD emissions)
  82. Organic water pollutant (BOD) emissions (kg per day)
  83. Water pollution, textile industry (% of total BOD emissions)
  84. Water pollution, wood industry (% of total BOD emissions)
  85. Organic water pollutant (BOD) emissions (kg per day per worker)
  86. Energy production (kt of oil equivalent)
  87. Electricity production from coal sources (kWh)
  88. Electricity production from coal sources (% of total)
  89. Electricity production from oil, gas and coal sources (% of total)
  90. Electricity production from hydroelectric sources (kWh)
  91. Electricity production from hydroelectric sources (% of total)
  92. Electric power transmission and distribution losses (kWh)
  93. Electric power transmission and distribution losses (% of output)
  94. Electricity production from natural gas sources (kWh)
  95. Electricity production from natural gas sources (% of total)
  96. Electricity production from nuclear sources (kWh)
  97. Electricity production from nuclear sources (% of total)
  98. Electricity production from oil sources (kWh)
  99. Electricity production from oil sources (% of total)
  100. Electricity production (kWh)
  101. GDP per unit of energy use (PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent)
  102. GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2005 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent)
  103. Energy imports, net (% of energy use)
  104. Alternative and nuclear energy (% of total energy use)
  105. Fossil fuel energy consumption (% of total)
  106. Energy use (kg of oil equivalent) per $1,000 GDP (constant 2005 PPP)
  107. Energy use (kt of oil equivalent)
  108. Combustible renewables and waste (metric tons of oil equivalent)
  109. Combustible renewables and waste (% of total energy)
  110. Electric power consumption (kWh)
  111. Electric power consumption (kWh per capita)
  112. Energy use (kg of oil equivalent per capita)
  113. CO2 intensity (kg per kg of oil equivalent energy use)
  114. CO2 emissions (kg per 2000 US$ of GDP)
  115. CO2 emissions (kt)
  116. CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita)
  117. CO2 emissions (kg per PPP $ of GDP)
  118. CO2 emissions (kg per 2005 PPP $ of GDP)
  119. CO2 emissions from solid fuel consumption (% of total)
  120. Other greenhouse gas emissions, HFC, PFC and SF6 (thousand metric tons of CO2 equivalent)
  121. HFC gas emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2 equivalent)
  122. Agricultural methane emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2 equivalent)
  123. Agricultural methane emissions (% of total)
  124. Methane emissions in energy sector (thousand metric tons of CO2 equivalent)
  125. Energy related methane emissions (% of total)
  126. Methane emissions (kt of CO2 equivalent)
  127. Agricultural nitrous oxide emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2 equivalent)
  128. Agricultural nitrous oxide emissions (% of total)
  129. Nitrous oxide emissions in energy sector (thousand metric tons of CO2 equivalent)
  130. Nitrous oxide emissions in industrial and energy processes (% of total nitrous oxide emissions)
  131. Industrial nitrous oxide emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2 equivalent)
  132. Nitrous oxide emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2 equivalent)
  133. PFC gas emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2 equivalent)
  134. PM10, country level (micrograms per cubic meter)
  135. SF6 gas emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2 equivalent)
  136. Population density (people per sq. km of land area)
  137. Population in largest city
  138. Population in the largest city (% of urban population)
  139. Population in urban agglomerations of more than 1 million
  140. Population in urban agglomerations of more than 1 million (% of total population)
  141. Pump price for diesel fuel (US$ per liter)
  142. Pump price for gasoline (US$ per liter)
  143. GEF benefits index for biodiversity (0 = no biodiversity potential to 100 = maximum)
  144. Water productivity, total (constant 2000 US$ GDP per cubic meter of total freshwater withdrawal)
  145. Annual freshwater withdrawals, agriculture (% of total freshwater withdrawal)
  146. Annual freshwater withdrawals, domestic (% of total freshwater withdrawal)
  147. Annual freshwater withdrawals, industry (% of total freshwater withdrawal)
  148. Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (billion cubic meters)
  149. Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (% of internal resources)
  150. Renewable internal freshwater resources, total (billion cubic meters)
  151. Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters)
  152. Terrestrial protected areas (% of total surface area)
  153. Marine protected areas (% of total surface area)
  154. Bank nonperforming loans to total gross loans (%)
  155. Automated teller machines (ATMs) (per 100,000 adults)
  156. Branches, commercial banks (per 100,000 adults)
  157. Bank capital to assets ratio (%)
  158. Deposit accounts, commercial banks (per 1,000 adults)
  159. Deposit accounts, cooperatives (per 1,000 adults)
  160. Point-of-sale terminals (per 100,000 adults)
  161. Bank liquid reserves to bank assets ratio (%)
  162. Total reserves (includes gold, current US$)
  163. Total reserves in months of imports
  164. Total reserves minus gold (current US$)
  165. Claims on central government (annual growth as % of broad money)
  166. Claims on other sectors of the domestic economy (annual growth as % of broad money)
  167. Net domestic credit (current LCU)
  168. Net foreign assets (current LCU)
  169. Claims on private sector (annual growth as % of broad money)
  170. Broad money (current LCU)
  171. Broad money (% of GDP)
  172. Broad money to total reserves ratio
  173. Broad money growth (annual %)
  174. Money (current LCU)
  175. Money and quasi money (M2) (current LCU)
  176. Money and quasi money (M2) as % of GDP
  177. Money and quasi money (M2) to total reserves ratio
  178. Money and quasi money growth (annual %)
  179. Quasi money (current LCU)
  180. Consumer price index (2005 = 100)
  181. Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
  182. Wholesale price index (2005 = 100)
  183. Lending interest rate (%)
  184. Real interest rate (%)
  185. Risk premium on lending (prime rate minus treasury bill rate, %)
  186. Claims on central government, etc. (% GDP)
  187. Claims on other sectors of the domestic economy (% of GDP)
  188. Domestic credit provided by banking sector (% of GDP)
  189. Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP)
  190. Liquid liabilities (M3) as % of GDP
  191. Quasi-liquid liabilities (% of GDP)
  192. Research and development expenditure (% of GDP)
  193. Cash surplus/deficit (current LCU)
  194. Cash surplus/deficit (% of GDP)
  195. Central government debt, total (current LCU)
  196. Central government debt, total (% of GDP)
  197. Net incurrence of liabilities, domestic (current LCU)
  198. Net incurrence of liabilities, domestic (% of GDP)
  199. Net incurrence of liabilities, foreign (current LCU)
  200. Net incurrence of liabilities, foreign (% of GDP)
  201. Grants and other revenue (current LCU)
  202. Grants and other revenue (% of revenue)
  203. Social contributions (current LCU)
  204. Social contributions (% of revenue)
  205. Revenue, excluding grants (current LCU)
  206. Revenue, excluding grants (% of GDP)
  207. Taxes on goods and services (current LCU)
  208. Taxes on goods and services (% of revenue)
  209. Taxes on goods and services (% value added of industry and services)
  210. Customs and other import duties (current LCU)
  211. Customs and other import duties (% of tax revenue)
  212. Taxes on international trade (current LCU)
  213. Taxes on international trade (% of revenue)
  214. Other taxes (current LCU)
  215. Other taxes (% of revenue)
  216. Tax revenue (current LCU)
  217. Tax revenue (% of GDP)
  218. Taxes on income, profits and capital gains (current LCU)
  219. Taxes on income, profits and capital gains (% of revenue)
  220. Taxes on income, profits and capital gains (% of total taxes)
  221. Compensation of employees (current LCU)
  222. Compensation of employees (% of expense)
  223. Goods and services expense (current LCU)
  224. Goods and services expense (% of expense)
  225. Interest payments (current LCU)
  226. Interest payments (% of revenue)
  227. Interest payments (% of expense)
  228. Other expense (current LCU)
  229. Other expense (% of expense)
  230. Expense (current LCU)
  231. Expense (% of GDP)
  232. Subsidies and other transfers (current LCU)
  233. Subsidies and other transfers (% of expense)
  234. Business extent of disclosure index (0=less disclosure to 10=more disclosure)
  235. Ease of doing business index (1=most business-friendly regulations)
  236. Credit depth of information index (0=low to 6=high)
  237. Private credit bureau coverage (% of adults)
  238. Public credit registry coverage (% of adults)
  239. Cost to export (US$ per container)
  240. Documents to export (number)
  241. Time to export (days)
  242. Cost to import (US$ per container)
  243. Documents to import (number)
  244. Time to import (days)
  245. Time to resolve insolvency (years)
  246. Strength of legal rights index (0=weak to 10=strong)
  247. Time required to enforce a contract (days)
  248. Procedures to enforce a contract (number)
  249. Time required to register property (days)
  250. Procedures to register property (number)
  251. Cost of business start-up procedures (% of GNI per capita)
  252. Time required to start a business (days)
  253. Start-up procedures to register a business (number)
  254. Time to prepare and pay taxes (hours)
  255. Labor tax and contributions (% of commercial profits)
  256. Other taxes payable by businesses (% of commercial profits)
  257. Tax payments (number)
  258. Profit tax (% of commercial profits)
  259. Total tax rate (% of commercial profits)
  260. Time required to build a warehouse (days)
  261. Procedures to build a warehouse (number)
  262. Scientific and technical journal articles
  263. Patent applications, nonresidents
  264. Patent applications, residents
  265. Trademark applications, aggregate direct
  266. Trademark applications, Madrid
  267. Trademark applications, direct nonresident
  268. Trademark applications, direct resident
  269. Trademark applications, total
  270. Burden of customs procedure, WEF (1=extremely inefficient to 7=extremely efficient)
  271. Quality of port infrastructure, WEF (1=extremely underdeveloped to 7=well developed and efficient by international standards)
  272. Air transport, registered carrier departures worldwide
  273. Air transport, freight (million ton-km)
  274. Air transport, passengers carried
  275. Road sector diesel fuel consumption (kt of oil equivalent)
  276. Road sector diesel fuel consumption per capita (kt of oil equivalent)
  277. Road density (km of road per 100 sq. km of land area)
  278. Road sector energy consumption (kt of oil equivalent)
  279. Road sector energy consumption per capita (kt of oil equivalent)
  280. Road sector energy consumption (% of total energy consumption)
  281. Roads, goods transported (million ton-km)
  282. Roads, paved (% of total roads)
  283. Roads, passengers carried (million passenger-km)
  284. Road sector gasoline fuel consumption (kt of oil equivalent)
  285. Road sector gasoline fuel consumption per capita (kt of oil equivalent)
  286. Roads, total network (km)
  287. Railways, goods transported (million ton-km)
  288. Railways, passengers carried (million passenger-km)
  289. Rail lines (total route-km)
  290. Liner shipping connectivity index (maximum value in 2004 = 100)
  291. Container port traffic (TEU: 20 foot equivalent units)
  292. Motor vehicles (per 1,000 people)
  293. Passenger cars (per 1,000 people)
  294. Vehicles (per km of road)
  295. Mobile cellular subscriptions
  296. Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people)
  297. Telephone lines
  298. Telephone lines (per 100 people)
  299. Fixed broadband Internet subscribers
  300. Fixed broadband Internet subscribers (per 100 people)
  301. Secure Internet servers
  302. Secure Internet servers (per 1 million people)
  303. Internet users
  304. Internet users (per 100 people)
  305. Daily newspapers (per 1,000 people)
  306. Lead time to export, median case (days)
  307. Lead time to import, median case (days)
  308. Logistics performance index: Efficiency of customs clearance process (1=low to 5=high)
  309. Logistics performance index: Quality of trade and transport-related infrastructure (1=low to 5=high)
  310. Logistics performance index: Ease of arranging competitively priced shipments (1=low to 5=high)
  311. Logistics performance index: Competence and quality of logistics services (1=low to 5=high)
  312. Logistics performance index: Overall (1=low to 5=high)
  313. Logistics performance index: Frequency with which shipments reach consignee within scheduled or expected time (1=low to 5=high)
  314. Logistics performance index: Ability to track and trace consignments (1=low to 5=high)
  315. Arms imports (constant 1990 US$)
  316. Armed forces personnel, total
  317. Armed forces personnel (% of total labor force)
  318. Military expenditure (current LCU)
  319. Military expenditure (% of GDP)
  320. Military expenditure (% of central government expenditure)
  321. Arms exports (constant 1990 US$)
  322. General government final consumption expenditure (current US$)
  323. General government final consumption expenditure (current LCU)
  324. General government final consumption expenditure (constant 2000 US$)
  325. General government final consumption expenditure (annual % growth)
  326. General government final consumption expenditure (constant LCU)
  327. General government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP)
  328. Household final consumption expenditure, etc. (current US$)
  329. Household final consumption expenditure, etc. (current LCU)
  330. Household final consumption expenditure, etc. (constant 2000 US$)
  331. Household final consumption expenditure, etc. (annual % growth)
  332. Household final consumption expenditure, etc. (constant LCU)
  333. Household final consumption expenditure, etc. (% of GDP)
  334. Household final consumption expenditure (current US$)
  335. Household final consumption expenditure (current LCU)
  336. Household final consumption expenditure (constant 2000 US$)
  337. Household final consumption expenditure (annual % growth)
  338. Household final consumption expenditure (constant LCU)
  339. Household final consumption expenditure per capita (constant 2000 US$)
  340. Household final consumption expenditure per capita growth (annual %)
  341. Household final consumption expenditure, PPP (current international $)
  342. Household final consumption expenditure, PPP (constant 2005 international $)
  343. Final consumption expenditure, etc. (current US$)
  344. Final consumption expenditure, etc. (current LCU)
  345. Final consumption expenditure, etc. (constant 2000 US$)
  346. Final consumption expenditure, etc. (annual % growth)
  347. Final consumption expenditure, etc. (constant LCU)
  348. Final consumption expenditure, etc. (% of GDP)
  349. Final consumption expenditure (current US$)
  350. Final consumption expenditure (current LCU)
  351. Final consumption expenditure (constant 2000 US$)
  352. Final consumption expenditure (constant LCU)
  353. Gross national expenditure deflator (base year varies by country)
  354. Gross national expenditure (current US$)
  355. Gross national expenditure (current LCU)
  356. Gross national expenditure (constant 2000 US$)
  357. Gross national expenditure (constant LCU)
  358. Gross national expenditure (% of GDP)
  359. Exports of goods and services (current US$)
  360. Exports of goods and services (current LCU)
  361. Exports of goods and services (constant 2000 US$)
  362. Exports of goods and services (annual % growth)
  363. Exports of goods and services (constant LCU)
  364. Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
  365. Gross fixed capital formation (current US$)
  366. Gross fixed capital formation (current LCU)
  367. Gross fixed capital formation (constant 2000 US$)
  368. Gross fixed capital formation (annual % growth)
  369. Gross fixed capital formation (constant LCU)
  370. Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP)
  371. Changes in inventories (current US$)
  372. Changes in inventories (current LCU)
  373. Gross capital formation (current US$)
  374. Gross capital formation (current LCU)
  375. Gross capital formation (constant 2000 US$)
  376. Gross capital formation (annual % growth)
  377. Gross capital formation (constant LCU)
  378. Gross capital formation (% of GDP)
  379. Imports of goods and services (current US$)
  380. Imports of goods and services (current LCU)
  381. Imports of goods and services (constant 2000 US$)
  382. Imports of goods and services (annual % growth)
  383. Imports of goods and services (constant LCU)
  384. Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
  385. External balance on goods and services (current US$)
  386. External balance on goods and services (current LCU)
  387. External balance on goods and services (constant LCU)
  388. External balance on goods and services (% of GDP)
  389. Trade (% of GDP)
  390. Agriculture, value added (current US$)
  391. Agriculture, value added (current LCU)
  392. Agriculture, value added (constant 2000 US$)
  393. Agriculture, value added (annual % growth)
  394. Agriculture, value added (constant LCU)
  395. Agriculture, value added (% of GDP)
  396. Manufacturing, value added (current US$)
  397. Manufacturing, value added (current LCU)
  398. Manufacturing, value added (constant 2000 US$)
  399. Manufacturing, value added (annual % growth)
  400. Manufacturing, value added (constant LCU)
  401. Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP)
  402. Industry, value added (current US$)
  403. Industry, value added (current LCU)
  404. Industry, value added (constant 2000 US$)
  405. Industry, value added (annual % growth)
  406. Industry, value added (constant LCU)
  407. Industry, value added (% of GDP)
  408. Chemicals (% of value added in manufacturing)
  409. Food, beverages and tobacco (% of value added in manufacturing)
  410. Machinery and transport equipment (% of value added in manufacturing)
  411. Other manufacturing (% of value added in manufacturing)
  412. Textiles and clothing (% of value added in manufacturing)
  413. Services, etc., value added (current US$)
  414. Services, etc., value added (current LCU)
  415. Services, etc., value added (constant 2000 US$)
  416. Services, etc., value added (annual % growth)
  417. Services, etc., value added (constant LCU)
  418. Services, etc., value added (% of GDP)
  419. Adjusted savings: education expenditure (current US$)
  420. Adjusted savings: education expenditure (% of GNI)
  421. Adjusted savings: carbon dioxide damage (current US$)
  422. Adjusted savings: carbon dioxide damage (% of GNI)
  423. Adjusted savings: net forest depletion (current US$)
  424. Adjusted savings: net forest depletion (% of GNI)
  425. Adjusted savings: consumption of fixed capital (current US$)
  426. Adjusted savings: consumption of fixed capital (% of GNI)
  427. Adjusted savings: mineral depletion (current US$)
  428. Adjusted savings: mineral depletion (% of GNI)
  429. Adjusted savings: energy depletion (current US$)
  430. Adjusted savings: energy depletion (% of GNI)
  431. Adjusted savings: particulate emission damage (current US$)
  432. Adjusted savings: particulate emission damage (% of GNI)
  433. Adjusted savings: natural resources depletion (% of GNI)
  434. Adjusted savings: gross savings (% of GNI)
  435. Adjusted savings: net national savings (current US$)
  436. Adjusted savings: net national savings (% of GNI)
  437. Adjusted net national income (current US$)
  438. Adjusted net national income (constant 2000 US$)
  439. Adjusted net national income (annual % growth)
  440. Adjusted net savings, including particulate emission damage (current US$)
  441. Adjusted net savings, including particulate emission damage (% of GNI)
  442. Adjusted net savings, excluding particulate emission damage (current US$)
  443. Adjusted net savings, excluding particulate emission damage (% of GNI)
  444. Exports as a capacity to import (constant LCU)
  445. Coal rents (% of GDP)
  446. Inflation, GDP deflator (annual %)
  447. GDP deflator (base year varies by country)
  448. Discrepancy in expenditure estimate of GDP (current LCU)
  449. Discrepancy in expenditure estimate of GDP (constant LCU)
  450. Gross value added at factor cost (current US$)
  451. Gross value added at factor cost (current LCU)
  452. Gross value added at factor cost (constant 2000 US$)
  453. Forest rents (% of GDP)
  454. Mineral rents (% of GDP)
  455. GDP (current US$)
  456. GDP (current LCU)
  457. GDP (constant 2000 US$)
  458. GDP growth (annual %)
  459. GDP (constant LCU)
  460. GDP, PPP (current international $)
  461. GDP, PPP (constant 2005 international $)
  462. Natural gas rents (% of GDP)
  463. GDP per capita (current US$)
  464. GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$)
  465. GDP per capita growth (annual %)
  466. GDP per capita (constant LCU)
  467. GDP per capita, PPP (current international $)
  468. GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2005 international $)
  469. Oil rents (% of GDP)
  470. Total natural resources rents (% of GDP)
  471. Gross domestic savings (current US$)
  472. Gross domestic savings (current LCU)
  473. Gross domestic savings (constant LCU)
  474. Gross domestic savings (% of GDP)
  475. Gross domestic income (constant 2000 US$)
  476. Gross domestic income (constant LCU)
  477. GNI, Atlas method (current US$)
  478. GNI (current US$)
  479. GNI (current LCU)
  480. GNI (constant 2000 US$)
  481. GNI growth (annual %)
  482. GNI (constant LCU)
  483. GNI, PPP (current international $)
  484. GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$)
  485. GNI per capita (constant 2000 US$)
  486. GNI per capita growth (annual %)
  487. GNI per capita (constant LCU)
  488. GNI per capita, PPP (current international $)
  489. Gross savings (current US$)
  490. Gross savings (current LCU)
  491. Gross savings (% of GNI)
  492. Gross savings (% of GDP)
  493. Gross national income (constant LCU)
  494. Net income from abroad (current US$)
  495. Net income from abroad (current LCU)
  496. Net income from abroad (constant LCU)
  497. Net taxes on products (current US$)
  498. Net taxes on products (current LCU)
  499. Net current transfers from abroad (current US$)
  500. Net current transfers from abroad (current LCU)
  501. Net current transfers from abroad (constant LCU)
  502. Terms of trade adjustment (constant LCU)
  503. DEC alternative conversion factor (LCU per US$)
  504. Official exchange rate (LCU per US$, period average)
  505. PPP conversion factor, GDP (LCU per international $)
  506. PPP conversion factor (GDP) to market exchange rate ratio
  507. PPP conversion factor, private consumption (LCU per international $)
  508. Real effective exchange rate index (2005 = 100)
  509. Ratio of female to male primary enrollment (%)
  510. Ratio of girls to boys in primary and secondary education (%)
  511. Ratio of female to male secondary enrollment (%)
  512. Ratio of female to male tertiary enrollment (%)
  513. School enrollment, preprimary (% gross)
  514. School enrollment, preprimary, female (% gross)
  515. School enrollment, preprimary, male (% gross)
  516. Primary school starting age (years)
  517. Primary completion rate, female (% of relevant age group)
  518. Primary completion rate, male (% of relevant age group)
  519. Primary completion rate, total (% of relevant age group)
  520. Primary education, duration (years)
  521. Primary education, pupils
  522. Primary education, pupils (% female)
  523. Pupil-teacher ratio, primary
  524. School enrollment, primary (% gross)
  525. School enrollment, primary, female (% gross)
  526. School enrollment, primary, male (% gross)
  527. Gross intake rate in grade 1, female (% of relevant age group)
  528. Gross intake rate in grade 1, male (% of relevant age group)
  529. Gross intake rate in grade 1, total (% of relevant age group)
  530. School enrollment, primary (% net)
  531. School enrollment, primary, female (% net)
  532. School enrollment, primary, male (% net)
  533. Net intake rate in grade 1, female (% of official school-age population)
  534. Net intake rate in grade 1, male (% of official school-age population)
  535. Net intake rate in grade 1 (% of official school-age population)
  536. School enrollment, primary, private (% of total primary)
  537. Persistence to grade 5, female (% of cohort)
  538. Persistence to grade 5, male (% of cohort)
  539. Persistence to grade 5, total (% of cohort)
  540. Persistence to last grade of primary, female (% of cohort)
  541. Persistence to last grade of primary, male (% of cohort)
  542. Persistence to last grade of primary, total (% of cohort)
  543. Repeaters, primary, female (% of female enrollment)
  544. Repeaters, primary, male (% of male enrollment)
  545. Repeaters, primary, total (% of total enrollment)
  546. Primary education, teachers
  547. Primary education, teachers (% female)
  548. Total enrollment, primary (% net)
  549. Total enrollment, primary, female (% net)
  550. Total enrollment, primary, male (% net)
  551. Children out of school, primary
  552. Children out of school, primary, female
  553. Children out of school, primary, male
  554. Secondary school starting age (years)
  555. Secondary education, duration (years)
  556. Secondary education, pupils
  557. Secondary education, pupils (% female)
  558. Secondary education, general pupils
  559. Secondary education, general pupils (% female)
  560. Pupil-teacher ratio, secondary
  561. Secondary education, vocational pupils (% female)
  562. School enrollment, secondary (% gross)
  563. School enrollment, secondary, female (% gross)
  564. School enrollment, secondary, male (% gross)
  565. School enrollment, secondary (% net)
  566. School enrollment, secondary, female (% net)
  567. School enrollment, secondary, male (% net)
  568. School enrollment, secondary, private (% of total secondary)
  569. Secondary education, teachers
  570. Secondary education, teachers, female
  571. Secondary education, teachers (% female)
  572. School enrollment, tertiary (% gross)
  573. School enrollment, tertiary, female (% gross)
  574. School enrollment, tertiary, male (% gross)
  575. Expenditure per student, primary (% of GDP per capita)
  576. Expenditure per student, secondary (% of GDP per capita)
  577. Expenditure per student, tertiary (% of GDP per capita)
  578. Public spending on education, total (% of government expenditure)
  579. Public spending on education, total (% of GDP)
  580. Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%)
  581. Female adults with HIV (% of population ages 15+ with HIV)
  582. Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49)
  583. Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000)
  584. Improved water source, rural (% of rural population with access)
  585. Improved water source, urban (% of urban population with access)
  586. Improved water source (% of population with access)
  587. Prevalence of HIV, female (% ages 15-24)
  588. Prevalence of HIV, male (% ages 15-24)
  589. Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12-23 months)
  590. Immunization, measles (% of children ages 12-23 months)
  591. Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)
  592. Nurses and midwives (per 1,000 people)
  593. Physicians (per 1,000 people)
  594. Lifetime risk of maternal death (1 in: rate varies by country)
  595. Lifetime risk of maternal death (%)
  596. Smoking prevalence, females (% of adults)
  597. Smoking prevalence, males (% of adults)
  598. Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access)
  599. Improved sanitation facilities, rural (% of rural population with access)
  600. Improved sanitation facilities, urban (% of urban population with access)
  601. Pregnant women receiving prenatal care (%)
  602. Births attended by skilled health staff (% of total)
  603. Low-birthweight babies (% of births)
  604. Malnutrition prevalence, weight for age (% of children under 5)
  605. Maternal mortality ratio (modeled estimate, per 100,000 live births)
  606. Maternal mortality ratio (national estimate, per 100,000 live births)
  607. Prevalence of overweight (% of children under 5)
  608. Malnutrition prevalence, height for age (% of children under 5)
  609. Prevalence of wasting (% of children under 5)
  610. Tuberculosis treatment success rate (% of registered cases)
  611. Tuberculosis case detection rate (%, all forms)
  612. Incidence of tuberculosis (per 100,000 people)
  613. Outpatient visits per capita
  614. External resources for health (% of total expenditure on health)
  615. Out-of-pocket health expenditure (% of total expenditure on health)
  616. Out-of-pocket health expenditure (% of private expenditure on health)
  617. Health expenditure per capita (current US$)
  618. Health expenditure per capita, PPP (constant 2005 international $)
  619. Health expenditure, private (% of GDP)
  620. Health expenditure, public (% of total health expenditure)
  621. Health expenditure, public (% of government expenditure)
  622. Health expenditure, public (% of GDP)
  623. Health expenditure, total (% of GDP)
  624. Income share held by second 20%
  625. Income share held by third 20%
  626. Income share held by fourth 20%
  627. Income share held by highest 20%
  628. Income share held by highest 10%
  629. Income share held by lowest 10%
  630. Income share held by lowest 20%
  631. GINI index
  632. Employees, agriculture, female (% of female employment)
  633. Employees, agriculture, male (% of male employment)
  634. Employment in agriculture (% of total employment)
  635. Employment to population ratio, ages 15-24, female (%)
  636. Employment to population ratio, ages 15-24, male (%)
  637. Employment to population ratio, ages 15-24, total (%)
  638. Share of women employed in the nonagricultural sector (% of total nonagricultural employment)
  639. Self-employed, female (% of females employed)
  640. Self-employed, male (% of males employed)
  641. Self-employed, total (% of total employed)
  642. Employment to population ratio, 15+, female (%)
  643. Employment to population ratio, 15+, male (%)
  644. Employment to population ratio, 15+, total (%)
  645. Wage and salaried workers, female (% of females employed)
  646. Wage and salary workers, male (% of males employed)
  647. Wage and salaried workers, total (% of total employed)
  648. Contributing family workers, female (% of females employed)
  649. Contributing family workers, male (% of males employed)
  650. Contributing family workers, total (% of total employed)
  651. GDP per person employed (constant 1990 PPP $)
  652. Employees, industry, female (% of female employment)
  653. Employees, industry, male (% of male employment)
  654. Employment in industry (% of total employment)
  655. Employees, services, female (% of female employment)
  656. Employees, services, male (% of male employment)
  657. Employment in services (% of total employment)
  658. Labor participation rate, female (% of female population ages 15+)
  659. Labor participation rate, male (% of male population ages 15+)
  660. Labor participation rate, total (% of total population ages 15+)
  661. Part time employment, female (% of total female employment)
  662. Part time employment, male (% of total male employment)
  663. Part time employment, female (% of total part time employment)
  664. Part time employment, total (% of total employment)
  665. Labor force with primary education, female (% of female labor force)
  666. Labor force with primary education, male (% of male labor force)
  667. Labor force with primary education (% of total)
  668. Labor force with secondary education, female (% of female labor force)
  669. Labor force with secondary education, male (% of male labor force)
  670. Labor force with secondary education (% of total)
  671. Labor force with tertiary education, female (% of female labor force)
  672. Labor force with tertiary education, male (% of male labor force)
  673. Labor force with tertiary education (% of total)
  674. Labor force, female (% of total labor force)
  675. Labor force, total
  676. Unemployment, youth female (% of female labor force ages 15-24)
  677. Unemployment, youth male (% of male labor force ages 15-24)
  678. Unemployment, youth total (% of total labor force ages 15-24)
  679. Long-term unemployment, female (% of female unemployment)
  680. Long-term unemployment, male (% of male unemployment)
  681. Long-term unemployment (% of total unemployment)
  682. Unemployment with primary education, female (% of female unemployment)
  683. Unemployment with primary education, male (% of male unemployment)
  684. Unemployment with primary education (% of total unemployment)
  685. Unemployment with secondary education, female (% of female unemployment)
  686. Unemployment with secondary education, male (% of male unemployment)
  687. Unemployment with secondary education (% of total unemployment)
  688. Unemployment with tertiary education, female (% of female unemployment)
  689. Unemployment with tertiary education, male (% of male unemployment)
  690. Unemployment with tertiary education (% of total unemployment)
  691. Unemployment, female (% of female labor force)
  692. Unemployment, male (% of male labor force)
  693. Unemployment, total (% of total labor force)
  694. Emigration rate of tertiary educated (% of total tertiary educated population)
  695. Net migration
  696. Refugee population by country or territory of asylum
  697. Refugee population by country or territory of origin
  698. International migrant stock, total
  699. International migrant stock (% of population)
  700. Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population)
  701. Depth of hunger (kilocalories per person per day)
  702. Adolescent fertility rate (births per 1,000 women ages 15-19)
  703. Completeness of infant death reporting (% of reported infant deaths to estimated infant deaths)
  704. Completeness of total death reporting (% of reported total deaths to estimated total deaths)
  705. Mortality rate, adult, female (per 1,000 female adults)
  706. Mortality rate, adult, male (per 1,000 male adults)
  707. Birth rate, crude (per 1,000 people)
  708. Death rate, crude (per 1,000 people)
  709. Contraceptive prevalence (% of women ages 15-49)
  710. Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)
  711. Life expectancy at birth, female (years)
  712. Life expectancy at birth, total (years)
  713. Life expectancy at birth, male (years)
  714. Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
  715. Survival to age 65, female (% of cohort)
  716. Survival to age 65, male (% of cohort)
  717. Population ages 0-14 (% of total)
  718. Population ages 15-64 (% of total)
  719. Population ages 65 and above (% of total)
  720. Age dependency ratio (% of working-age population)
  721. Age dependency ratio, old (% of working-age population)
  722. Age dependency ratio, young (% of working-age population)
  723. Population growth (annual %)
  724. Researchers in R&D (per million people)
  725. Population, total
  726. Population, female (% of total)
  727. Rural population
  728. Rural population growth (annual %)
  729. Rural population (% of total population)
  730. Urban population growth (annual %)
  731. Urban population
  732. Urban population (% of total)
  733. International tourism, number of arrivals
  734. International tourism, number of departures
  735. International tourism, receipts (current US$)
  736. International tourism, receipts (% of total exports)
  737. International tourism, receipts for passenger transport items (current US$)
  738. International tourism, expenditures for passenger transport items (current US$)
  739. International tourism, receipts for travel items (current US$)
  740. International tourism, expenditures for travel items (current US$)
  741. International tourism, expenditures (current US$)
  742. International tourism, expenditures (% of total imports)
  743. Merchandise trade (% of GDP)
  744. Import volume index (2000 = 100)
  745. Binding coverage, manufactured products (%)
  746. Bound rate, simple mean, manufactured products (%)
  747. Share of tariff lines with international peaks, manufactured products (%)
  748. Tariff rate, applied, simple mean, manufactured products (%)
  749. Tariff rate, most favored nation, simple mean, manufactured products (%)
  750. Share of tariff lines with specific rates, manufactured products (%)
  751. Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, manufactured products (%)
  752. Tariff rate, most favored nation, weighted mean, manufactured products (%)
  753. Binding coverage, all products (%)
  754. Bound rate, simple mean, all products (%)
  755. Share of tariff lines with international peaks, all products (%)
  756. Tariff rate, applied, simple mean, all products (%)
  757. Tariff rate, most favored nation, simple mean, all products (%)
  758. Share of tariff lines with specific rates, all products (%)
  759. Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, all products (%)
  760. Tariff rate, most favored nation, weighted mean, all products (%)
  761. Binding coverage, primary products (%)
  762. Bound rate, simple mean, primary products (%)
  763. Share of tariff lines with international peaks, primary products (%)
  764. Tariff rate, applied, simple mean, primary products (%)
  765. Tariff rate, most favored nation, simple mean, primary products (%)
  766. Share of tariff lines with specific rates, primary products (%)
  767. Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, primary products (%)
  768. Tariff rate, most favored nation, weighted mean, primary products (%)
  769. Agricultural raw materials imports (% of merchandise imports)
  770. Food imports (% of merchandise imports)
  771. Fuel imports (% of merchandise imports)
  772. ICT goods imports (% total goods imports)
  773. Insurance and financial services (% of commercial service imports)
  774. Manufactures imports (% of merchandise imports)
  775. Ores and metals imports (% of merchandise imports)
  776. Merchandise imports from economies in the Arab World (% of total merchandise imports)
  777. Merchandise imports (current US$)
  778. Merchandise imports from high-income economies (% of total merchandise imports)
  779. Merchandise imports from developing economies outside region (% of total merchandise imports)
  780. Merchandise imports from developing economies in East Asia & Pacific (% of total merchandise imports)
  781. Merchandise imports from developing economies in Europe & Central Asia (% of total merchandise imports)
  782. Merchandise imports from developing economies in Latin America & the Caribbean (% of total merchandise imports)
  783. Merchandise imports from developing economies in Middle East & North Africa (% of total merchandise imports)
  784. Merchandise imports from developing economies in South Asia (% of total merchandise imports)
  785. Merchandise imports from developing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa (% of total merchandise imports)
  786. Merchandise imports by the reporting economy, residual (% of total merchandise imports)
  787. Merchandise imports by the reporting economy (current US$)
  788. Import value index (2000 = 100)
  789. Computer, communications and other services (% of commercial service imports)
  790. Commercial service imports (current US$)
  791. Transport services (% of commercial service imports)
  792. Travel services (% of commercial service imports)
  793. Net barter terms of trade index (2000 = 100)
  794. Export volume index (2000 = 100)
  795. Agricultural raw materials exports (% of merchandise exports)
  796. Food exports (% of merchandise exports)
  797. Fuel exports (% of merchandise exports)
  798. ICT goods exports (% of total goods exports)
  799. Insurance and financial services (% of commercial service exports)
  800. Manufactures exports (% of merchandise exports)
  801. Ores and metals exports (% of merchandise exports)
  802. Merchandise exports to economies in the Arab World (% of total merchandise exports)
  803. Merchandise exports (current US$)
  804. Merchandise exports to high-income economies (% of total merchandise exports)
  805. Merchandise exports to developing economies outside region (% of total merchandise exports)
  806. Merchandise exports to developing economies in East Asia & Pacific (% of total merchandise exports)
  807. Merchandise exports to developing economies in Europe & Central Asia (% of total merchandise exports)
  808. Merchandise exports to developing economies in Latin America & the Caribbean (% of total merchandise exports)
  809. Merchandise exports to developing economies in Middle East & North Africa (% of total merchandise exports)
  810. Merchandise exports to developing economies in South Asia (% of total merchandise exports)
  811. Merchandise exports to developing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa (% of total merchandise exports)
  812. Merchandise exports by the reporting economy, residual (% of total merchandise exports)
  813. Merchandise exports by the reporting economy (current US$)
  814. Export value index (2000 = 100)
  815. Computer, communications and other services (% of commercial service exports)
  816. Commercial service exports (current US$)
  817. High-technology exports (current US$)
  818. High-technology exports (% of manufactured exports)
  819. Transport services (% of commercial service exports)
  820. Travel services (% of commercial service exports)
  821. Battle-related deaths (number of people)
  822. Intentional homicides, UN Crime Trends Survey (CTS) source (per 100,000 people)
  823. Intentional homicides, international public health sources (per 100,000 people)

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Comments

14 February 2012 14:28  »  Pedro Dudiuk

@Jacek
Felicitaciones! Es una excelente análisis. No tengo mucho tiempo para intercambiar impresiones y nos sabes cuanto lo lamento!
Pedreo

14 February 2012 1:33  »  Chris Jones of Star Legal & Corporate (Vietnam)

Thanks for this. As you say, 'complexity' indeed.

I predicted the first big signs of the collapse would come in 2012 (see youTube 'Global Economic Crisis 2012: Causes and Effects' by Zip Zagon my YouTube name). However, this is, or course an election year in the US, so the money ptinting will be running full tilt. There will be a big price to pay for this additional money printing a short time after the elections.

With the mony printing comes a false hope of recovery. It will prompt the lemmings to return to the equity market. Equity investment these days is mostly sheer speculation rather than about investment in sound companies for the long term. Investors will therefore temporarily abandon the USD bonds, thus removing the demand off the USD; this in turn will erode the value of the USD causing inflation. We can already see this see saw patern clearly emerging.

The effect of this big rise in inflation will scare the equity investors back into USD bonds, thus again pushing up the value of the USD and deflating the prices of commodities, including gold and oil that are priced in USD.

From there we will go into a deflationary spiral of falling demand and falling prices, which will be very hard to pull out of - a repeat of what happened in the Great Depression.

The Greek parialment may have just signed off on the austertiy bill, but those who think the Greek people have the stomach to see this belt tightening process through are dreaming. The belt tightening will all collpse in a heap, and the Euro Zone money would have been already lent - what a huge mess will ensue.

The Greeks would have been far better to have pulled out of the Union, wiped out their poor long suffering creditors, abandoned the Euro, deflated their own national currency, taken some short sharp pain and then recovered. This present way is merely prolonging the agony. How can austerity promote growth? And only growth (or war with the demand it stimulates) can pull the Greeks out of their present mess.

Severe economic difficulties are never present by themselves. They are always accompanied by political and social unrest, and so it will be again. Unfortunately, the only immediate solution I see is a war with Shiite Iraq undertaken by the Western allies and NATO and, importantly, funded by the Gulf Sunni States,m because the US public would not and could not fund yet another war in the Middle East.

There has to be a good reason to attack Iran, because there isn't one now. So look for someone (Mossad/ CIA?) fermenting trouble amoung the Shiite minority living in the very sensitiv area of the eastern side of Saudi Arabia, home of a large part of the world's oil supply. With the Sunni Gulf States funding this war, Israel would once again have to sit on the sidelines while others did its dirty work, a situation that couldn't please the Israelis more.

Yes, unfortunately war with Iran is the only short term answer for the West and for global economic recovery. As it stands, no matter what so-called remedial actions are taken, the aging populaton of 'Baby Boomers' now a big liability demanding pensions and medical care, instead of a tax-paying asset, and the increasing unemployment, will not definitely not provide the demand necessary for a recovery to occur.

But Russia and China are both allies of Iraq in some ways. What will they do? Just sit there while the US and its allies strike an ally on their borders? Hardly. CAJ.

08 February 2012 23:53  »  RUEL C. DE VERA

Thanks Ladies and Gentlemen, exciting data inputs perfectly executed.
CONGRATULATIONS!!

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