http://www.ontonix.com/ A forum for exchange of ideas on complexity and complexity science http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=769 In a previous blog we have described how we see an alternative and more modern approach to classical risk management: business robustification. Making a business more resilient, more resistant to shocks and turbulence, is a new way to manage uncertainty. The conventional approach is to identify risks, model these risks, and run the business based on the outputs of such models. We claim that not only [...] High-frequency Rating: An Early-Warning System for a Turbulent Economy. http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=767 When facing large doses of uncertainty risk model-based methods of managing uncertainty don't work. One thing is to manage an assembly line producing, for example, computer chips, another is to run a company in a globalized, turbulent, chaotic, non-stationary and shock-punctuated economy. Some things can be accomplished via mathematical modeling some cannot. Sure, you can model anything. Nobody can stop you from dreaming up an equation based on which you [...] Beyond Risk Management. What Are the Alternatives? http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=768 Should Italy form part of the so-called PIIGS? Not really. Italy is one of the 4 largest European economies, the third largest contributor to the EU, has EU's second largest manufacturing industry and belongs to the G8. Its GDP is more than the combined GDP of Spain, Greece, Ireland and Portugal. In terms of resilience, that of Italy is substantially higher that that of the PIGS. As far as [...] PIIGS or PIGS? http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=766 Risk Management is supposed to help a company face better the numerous forms of risks it can face. Ultimately, risk management is supposed to avoid the collapse of a company, providing early warnings and helping identify where the dangers lie. That is the theory. Let's take a look at banks. Banks risk with their clients. They lend them money and expose themselves to the alternative of not getting it back. Risk [...] Why Risk Management Needs a Big Overhaul. http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=763 Our quarterly analysis of Eurostat's macroeconomic data illustrates how, from a systems point of view, the EU is in a standstill, with the EU15 driving what seems to be a very mild recovery and the EU12 still in a shrinking phase. However, since attention is currently focused on Greece and Spain, we would like to illustrate how in Q3 2011 these two countries compared to the other countries forming the [...] A Closer Look at the PIIGS http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=762 Is it possible to actually measure the overall level of stress in a corporation? And how can stress be measured? Can it be measured directly or by proxy? There are different ways to detect a state of stress in an individual, for example by checking muscle tension, hand temperature, nervous sweating, rapid pulse or rapid shallow breathing. For a single individual it is easy but what about a large corporation? [...] Measuring Stress and Alignment In Your Organization http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=761 It is evident that it is the employees who generate the revenue of a company. It is also clear that a well managed, integrated and motivated workforce performs better and therefore is able to impact the business bottom line in a more positive fashion. The question is if this relationship can actually be measured. The answer is affirmative. This blog describes how this can be done and with what concrete [...] Measuring the Impact of Employees On the Balance Sheet http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=764 Ludwig Wittgenstein sustained that "what cannot be debated should not be debated". We say that what cannot be modeled should not be modeled. Otherwise one faces making massive investments with no tangible return. Based on our current understanding of physics and using our contemporary mathematics certain things are "impossible to model". Therefore, we should not spend time and precious resources on modeling them. What [...] Things That Cannot Be Modeled Shouldn't be Modeled http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=756 We often hear people say that "higher complexity makes a system more robust and resilient". Is this true? Not quite. Like with many things in life, it's all relative. There is one funamental point to clarify before we give an answer. Complexity is a measure of the total amount of structured information (which is measured in bits) that is "contained within a system" and reflects many of its [...] High Complexity. Is it Good or Bad? http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=760 April 10-th was a bad day for the EU stock markets, some of which fell as much as 5%. Our Ontix™ meta-index reflected that very eloquently, as indicated in the chart above. Click on the image for more information. The following Friday April 14-th, after two days or rallies, the stock markets plunged again. See the Ontix™ below: The Ontix™ Meta-Index provides a unique real-time holistic complexity rating of the major [...] Black Tuesday (and Friday) in EU Stock Markets and the Ontix Meta-Index