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When Has the 2007 Crisis Really Begun?
The global economy meltdown has officially begun in Q3 2007. The trigger has been a foreclosure epidemic in the US which has began in late 2006. The crisis has culminated with the bankrupcy of Lehman Brothers bank in September 2008.
In this short note we'd like to illustrate how variations in the complexity of an economy can hint that a crisis is on the horizon and establish a formidable pre-alarm system. [...]
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Technorati Tags: Crisis anticipation, pre-alarms, early-warnings, complexity, balance of payments |
27 August 2010 |
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Too Big to Fail? No, Too Complex to Survive.
The Wikipedia: "Entities are considered to be "Too big to fail" by those who believe those entities are so central to a macroeconomy that their failure will be disastrous to an economy, and as such believe they should become recipients of beneficial financial and economic policies from governments and/or central banks. It is thought that companies that fall into this category take positions that are high-risk, as they are able [...]
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Technorati Tags: Too big to fail, complexity, critical complexity, financial stability, fragility, vulnerability |
08 August 2010 | No Comments
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Could Euroland's Economic Woes Have Been Anticipated?
The increasing number of inter-relationships among the various macro-economical parameters of each country, and the high uncertainty and unpredictability of their behaviors have proven and confirmed the difficulty to predict, manage and control any possible reactions that any country of European economy can have. This proven difficulty increases in a remarkable way when you move from a country level to the European Union level. The combination of these factors requires [...]
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Technorati Tags: Crisis anticipation, EU crisis, Complexity, GDP of the EU |
28 July 2010 | No Comments
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High Complexity and Fragility
The recent antenna problems with Apple's new iPhone is one more confirmation of how the increasing complexity of new and sophisticated products of the manufacturing industry call for new paradigms in design and engineering. The fact that other smart phone manufacturers are experiencing similar problems confirms the fact that excessive complexity manifests itself in the form of surprising and unexpected product behaviour. This is because highly complex systems possess a [...]
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Technorati Tags: product complexity and fragility, product design, complexity |
25 July 2010 | No Comments
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