http://www.ontonix.com/ A forum for exchange of ideas on complexity and complexity science http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=736 Does the Nobel Prize in Economics still make sense today? Given the horrendous state of the World economy, it is clear that the “science of the economy” has failed. The words "economy meltdown" have been pronounced so many times in the past few years that there seems to be little doubt as to how the economy is doing. While other fields of knowledge have scored some spectacular successes, economics seems [...] Does a Nobel in Economics Still Make Sense? http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=735 The European Union is in a state of evident and (possibly) irreversible demise. The first and most prominent reflection of this is the weakness of the Euro which we have recently forecasted to "dissolve" around Q3 of 2013. Once the common currency is gone, the union will probably transform into something else that is easier to manage, less complex, less heterogeneous. The structural resilience of the EU as a system [...] When Will the USA Collapse? Around 2018. http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=733 It is probably easier to decide where not to invest than where to invest. In many cases, the decision is made by examining a corporation's financial and balance statements and, of course, its rating. In theory, an investor can look into any public company's books. In practice this is close to impossible. The rating process is also not excessively transparent. What can a private investor do? Are there any [...] How to Check If a Company Is Investment-Grade http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=732 The US has recently lost its AAA rating. This has sparked a lively debate, with many claiming that the decision is political. Setting aside these aspects, let us see what holistic complexity-based resilience rating says of the US as a system. Our analysis has been based on data from the World Bank, which includes 800+ macroeconomic and other parameters (see list below). The reason we claim the analysis is holistic [...] Does the US Deserve the Downgrade? Is It Really a AAA Country? http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=731 Very few systems are static in nature. In fact, most systems encountered in Nature not only are dynamic, they are frequently non-stationary and their properties are constantly changing. The same may be said of complexity and of its bounds. As we know, complexity is a physical property of every system, just like for example energy. At the same time, for [...] The Dynamic Properties of Complexity and Business Resilience http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=727 Is your company prepared to face extreme events and shocks? Does it hide fragilities of which you are unaware? Is it prepared to face the risks of a turbulent economy? Is it a one-star business, hence candidate for default, or is it resilient and stable? To which of the classes below does your business belong? Has it crossed the black line? Remember, sound financial performance is no guarantee. Many triple-A rated [...] Is Your Company Prepared for Extreme Events and Shocks? http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=723 The Cold War was, de facto, the Third World War. We are now fighting the Fourth World War. It is a global economic war. The victims are hundreds of millions, if not billions, of individuals, their savings, their lifestyles, their future and the future of their children. In effect, the future of the planet is at stake. When analyzed from a global systemic perspective, the question is no longer [...] Should Europe Have Its Own Rating Agency? http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=726 We know that the problems of the EU (and not only) are structural. Basically this means that we are all on the same boat. The situation is both complicated and complex. The situation may be appreciated better when displayed on top of the map of Europe, as shown below. The color of each country represents complexity - a more intense color indicates higher complexity. The height of each bar reflects [...] A Global Look at EU's Economy - The Resilience Map. http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=675 Much has been written about the global economic crisis, its causes and its consequences. We could say that to a large extent we actually understand what has happened and why. The point, however, is to look to the future and to learn from past mistakes. In particular, we would all like to understand how to avoid the next crisis which, because of the increasing fragility of the global economy, with [...] How To Avoid the Next (Worse) Crisis. Democratize Ratings. http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=684 We live in the digital age. True. The flow of data is impressive. Statistics inform us that each year we generate more data than the past generations did in decades. But the problem is that Information Technology (IT) has concentrated on simply automating old ways of thinking, creating bottlenecks and problems we didn't even imagine, and not really inventing new proccesses or approaches. There is little innovation going on [...] Identifying Hidden Structure (in Data) and Computing Knowledge