Complexity technology establishes a radically innovative means of anticipating crises. Systems under severe stress or on a path to collapse undergo either rapid complexity fluctuations or exhibit a consistent growth of complexity. If complexity is not measured, these precious crisis precursors will go unnoticed. Conventional methods are unable to identify such precursors.

How does complexity-based crisis anticipation work? You simply measure and track business complexity (yours or of your clients), and look out for any sudden changes or even slow but consistent drifts. This technique provides the basis for a rational and holistic crisis-anticipation system for decision-makers, investors, managers, and policy-makers. Essentially, the system buys you time, the most precious resource you have.

Our complexity-based crisis anticipation functions in real-time and may be applied to:
 

  • Corporations
  • Banks (in this case we indicate clients who may be defaulting)
  • Asset portfolios
  • Stock markets
  • Process plants
  • Traffic systems
  • IT systems
  • Hospitalized patients
  • Car/aircraft electronic systems
  • Critical infrastructures
  • Systems of systems


A crisis cannot be predicted but it is possible to identify pre-crisis conditions and scenarios. Be warned of problems before it is too late. Connect our Quantitative Complexity Management engine to your ERP system as part of your Business Continuity Management strategy.

excessive complexity is a formidable source of (hidden) fragility.

excessive complexity is a formidable source of (hidden) fragility.


Crisis anticipation via constant complexity monitoring produces an additional and unique outcome of paramount importance: it provides quantitative information about the worst-case scenario. In other words, we can actually measure:

How Bad Can It Get?

The critical state, which is known as critical complexity, and which every system possesses, is not a state of equilibrium. It changes with its environment. It changes quickly. Nothing is in equilibrium, nothing stays the same. This means that the worst-case scenario is in a state of permanent mutation. What is important is that independently of the context we are able to measure critical complexity and to pinpoint its drivers. Can one build a solid strategy without knowing what the worst case looks like?

 

how bad can things get? to answer the question it is necessary to know the critical complexity of one's business.

how bad can things get? to answer the question it is necessary to know the critical complexity of one's business.


Examples:

Early-warning in Intensive Care Unit: pre-alarms based on real-time data, outperforming significantly traditional monitoring technology

Identification of fault in compressor in oil refinery: pinpointing a failure hours in advance, outperforming significantly traditional monitoring technology

Identification of pre-default conditions in corporate clients of systemic bank


Write to us to obtain information about crisis-anticipation.