http://www.ontonix.com/ A forum for exchange of ideas on complexity and complexity science http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=502 The increasing number of inter-relationships among the various macro-economical parameters of each country, and the high uncertainty and unpredictability of their behaviors have proven and confirmed the difficulty to predict, manage and control any possible reactions that any country of European economy can have. This proven difficulty increases in a [...] Could Euroland's Economic Woes Have Been Anticipated? http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=500 The recent antenna problems with Apple's new iPhone is one more confirmation of how the increasing complexity of new and sophisticated products of the manufacturing industry call for new paradigms in design and engineering. The fact that other smart phone manufacturers are experiencing similar problems confirms the fact that excessive [...] High Complexity and Fragility http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=499 Prediction of the future has always been man's dream. However, there is an overwhelming amount of physical evidence that this is quite impossible. This is because the future is permanently under construction. Therefore, as every second passes, the future is changed. The cause of this are the laws of physics. [...] Is it Possible to Make Predictions? http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=496 Ratings lie at the very heart of the economy and yet, as the current crisis is showing, they are not entirely reliable. In fact: The process of rating involves interaction with the recipient company. This means the process cannot be fully objective. A [...] Democratizing Ratings http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=495 In a recently published article on CNN.com one may find country ratings reported in the second column of the table below. The third column reports our Structural Fragility of each country's economy that have recently been published. The full report is available here. Both columns reflect totally different aspects [...] Rating the Ratings http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=488 The structural fragility of a corporation, a market or an economy may be quantified by measuring its current complexity and the corresponding critical complexity. At critical complexity all dynamic systems become unstable and are characterized by a marked capacity to lead to unexpected and surprising behavior. Therefore, the further a [...] How Fragile is the Structure of Euroland's Economy? http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=493 Remember how you bought a new car before the internet era? You walked into a dealership, waited for a slick salesperson to pounce upon you and engaged in a series of mind-games about the price, quality, options and other add-ons which dealerships love to stick you with. When you finally [...] What is the Invoice Price of a AAA rating? http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=486 In a recent article, discussing the complexity of the conflict in Afghanistan, the US military were shown a PowerPoint slide which is supposed to reflect the scenario they face. The slide illustrates to so-called spaghetti effect when high density maps are plotted using a random layout of nodes. The OntoSpace [...] The Enemy is Not Powerpoint. It is Complexity http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=484 "Some European officials are calling for curbs on rating agencies like Standard & Poor's, Moody's Corp. and Fitch Ratings. They argue that conflicts of interest and bad information make the agencies' assessments unreliable, even dangerous. Germany's foreign minister went so far Thursday as to suggest that the European Union should create [...] Credit Rating Agencies Under Fire. http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=31&vedidoc=y&IDDOC=483 Can we speak of cycles in a regime of turbulence? Will the economy always go through cycles? Will a Through-the-Cycle rating still make sense in a highly turbulent global economy? One could argue that economic cycles (recessions, depressions, stagnations, etc.) resemble ocean tides. They come with certain frequencies (see the [...] Turbulence and Economic Cycles. An Oxymoron?