High Complexity is a New Generation Risk.

We Measure and Manage Complexity. Since 2005.

In 2018 Ontonix introduces the first Complexity Monitoring Chip.

 

 


Excessive Complexity = Risk

TCTS.jpg

As the 2008 crisis has shown, conventional means of risk assessment, management and rating are not suited for a complex and turbulent economy. They are subjective and produce results that can be manipulated. There is a pressing need to devise more modern, objective and science-based means of dealing with uncertainty and complexity. This is exactly what we do and what we offer.

Quantitative Complexity Management (QCM) is not just about a new and advanced means of dealing with risk. It is also a new platform on which to unify corporate strategy and risk management, breaking with the old paradigms that have contributed so eloquently to the 2008 planetary economy meltdown.

However, excessive complexity is not only a threat and source of risk in the economy. Modern software-packed products, such as cars, aircraft, IT systems, or the IoT, offer many examples of how complexity can become a nightmare. What makes these systems powerful, also makes them fragile. Complexity is a new generation risk.

 How complex is the electronics in a car? we can measure it.

How complex is the electronics in a car? we can measure it.

 

 

Science, not Opinions

URManagement.jpg

There is a proliferation of the so-called metrics and 'definitions' of complexity that have little to do with serious science.

A useful metric must be bounded - it cannot assume infinite values. Complexity links the functionality of a system with entropy, a measure of disorder as well as of information. Complexity is not about counting parts or interconnections between components. Our metric has units - 'complexity bits', or cbits.

Complexity is a fundamental property of every system, just like energy. It is a physical dimension, an attribute of all systems, natural and man-made. It is about the structure and entropy of spatio-temporal interactions in systems.

In 2015, Ontonix has been the originator and principal author of the World's first 'Business Complexity Assessment' standard, published in Italy by UNI, 11613. The ISO 22375 standard on business complexity, which follows the UNI standard, has been published in 2018.

In 2018 Ontonix launched the World's first Complexity Monitoring Chip, developed in partnership with SAIC and with US DoD funding.

the COmplexity monitoring chip can be incorporated in cars, planes, ships or any critical equipment for real-time fragility early warnings.

Solutions For Turbulent Times

cyberdefense.jpg

While the unprecedented challenges affecting the global economy are a source of both opportunities and threats, traditional analytics is unable to deal with the immense complexity of ICT systems or critical infrastructures. The ´New Normal´ of a more uncertain world requires a different kind of approach and a new set of analytical tools.

Conventional analytics techniques and tools have been devised in a world that no longer exists. Limited by linear thinking traditional analytics is removed from reality.

Our solutions have been crafted specifically for a turbulent and global economy, in which nothing stays in equilibrium and where things change with the speed of the internet.

Quantitaive Complexity Management is efficient tool for:

  • pinpointing concentrations of fragility and vulnerability

  • reducing the impact of inefficiencies

  • improving profitability

  • delivering a holistic "CAT-scan" of a system

  • extracting new knowledge from data

But Quantitative Complexity Management establishes also the grounds for a new and modern means of managing, assessing and rating risk. The new science is based on model-free methods, which allow us to concentrate on solving real problems not on building exotic mathematical constructs.

QCM goes beyond just risk. It is about a modern approach to strategy, to decision-making and management. QCM is a therapy. it is a new lifestyle. It is a new way to run things.

 

 

 


 Complexity X Uncertainty = Fragility™

The above equation is the Principle of Fragility, which has been coined by Ontonix in 2005. It reveals why in an uncertain context a highly sophisticated and complex business or infrastructure are more exposed, hence more vulnerable. As the uncertainty and turbulence of our World increases, simpler solutions are preferable as they are more resilient.

Over the past few decades new technologies have been accelerating the growth of complexity to levels which are threatening not just the sustainability of our global society but the governability of its critical infrastructures. This is why one cannot design a highly complex system without taking complexity into account.

 

 ..

 

In order to counter the negative effects of rapid growth of complexity we first need to perform an in-depth analysis of a business, process or infrastructure. We resort to supercomputers to process hundreds of thousands of variables to deliver a truly systemic and holistic reflection of a business and of its state of health. This requires new technology, beyond statistics, neural nets, cluster analysis, Bayesian methods or Monte Carlo Simulation. Our tools are based on a radically innovative model-free approach which allows us to solve problems that are beyond the reach of traditional mathematics.

 

Serious Science Starts When You Begin To Measure

Examples of Complexity Maps, which reveal the structure of complexity and its key contributors.